The NFL Combine

One would certainly think that the majority of NFL pro scouts and multi-millionaire (and sometimes billionaire) NFL club owners would be smart individuals. One would think that properly evaluating talent is the way to succeed in the NFL. Then again, maybe this is where common sense breaks down.

Exhibit A: Taylor Mays. He is a freakish athelete from the University of Southern California. He plays free safety and is known for his punishing hits in the secondary. Coming in to the 2009 football season, Mays was projected to be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft after a solid 2008 campaign. Well, the 2008 USC defense was stacked with talent and that covered up Mays' weaknesses. As the 2009 football season unfolded, Mays' draft stock fell seemingly every single week. The problem? Mays' decision making and slow reaction time. He was often found to be out of position. By the end of the season, Mays was projected to be selected in the late 20's of the first round. Still solid. He went into the Senior Bowl with something to prove. He failed and after that game, "experts" expected him to be a fringe first rounder. These "experts" I speak of are draft gurus and pro scouts.

That brings us to the ridiculous NFL pro scouting combine. The whole concept of the combine does not make sense. It's a chance for NFL scouts, coaches and owners to watch NFL prospects essentially run a series of drills. Apparently, hours upon hours of game film are not good enough. Mr. Taylor Mays goes into the combine with lots of flaws in his game. From day 1, all scouts know that Mays has freakish physical tools, but lacks a strong football IQ as evidenced by the mountain of film they have watched on him. Now to the combine, where May's proceeds to run a 4.41 second 40-yard dash, the fastest among all defensive backs. Certainly, that's an achievement, but this is where the system breaks down. I've read several instances that Mays improved is draft stock by as many as 10 picks because of his combine workout. Really? Surely, you're smarter than that (you listening Al Davis?). Does his 40 time erase the questions about his football abilities? And that's only part of the issue I have with the emphasis placed on 40 times. The second part is even more ridiculous. Do you realize that there were offensive and defensive lineman ran the 40 in the high 4 second range. That's a half second slower than Mays. That's one half of one second. Think about that. The combine fires me up because not a year goes by where someone shows "amazing" speed at the combine and gets drafted way too high as a result. Exhibit B: Darius Heyward-Bey and the infamously stupid Al Davis at the 2009 NFL draft. How did that return on investment wind up for you, Al?

Stupidity such as this makes me think that I can make millions of dollars as a scouting director for one of these teams.